Weekly Market Recap & Calendar – Week of September 28, 2026

Wall Street ended last week higher, with tech and AI stocks leading the way, even as US Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in almost two decades. This week's calendar is packed: a likely RBA rate hike, a batch of European inflation prints, US PCE inflation and ISM data, and the September Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. Here is the recap and what to watch.

Last Week's Market Snapshot (September 21–25)

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best weekly performances since early August, while the Dow snapped a three-week losing streak. By sector, technology was the standout, gaining about 3.5% on the week, while utilities were the weakest, losing about 3.9%.

What Drove Markets Last Week

AI and tech rally. Meta jumped sharply after the launch of its new AI agent, Muse, which revived demand for chip and AI-linked names such as AMD, Intel and ARM. This helped the Nasdaq outperform.

Oil and the Iran headlines. Oil swung with the news flow. Early in the week, fading hopes of direct US–Iran talks pushed crude higher, but by the weekend, reports of contacts on a phased deal, including the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pulled prices back down. Note that the new week has opened with fresh volatility, as oil edged higher in early Monday trading after reports that President Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire conditions.

Bond yields and the Fed. Strong US data and hawkish comments from senior Fed officials strengthened bets on further rate hikes. The 10-year yield touched its highest level since 2007 and closed the week at 5.18%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.5%. Rising yields weighed on stocks mid-week, though buyers returned later.

US–China trade. The Trump–Xi summit extended the US–China trade ceasefire by two months, but there was no broad breakthrough on tariffs, chips or rare earths.

Key US Data Last Week

Both releases came in far above expectations. The manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.0, a sign of accelerating factory activity, and new home sales rose to an annualized 684,000 despite high mortgage rates. Strong data like this shows the US economy is resilient, but it also supports the view that the Fed may need to keep policy tight to prevent inflation from re-accelerating.

Economic Calendar: Tuesday, September 29 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Wednesday, September 30 (GMT)

Note: the Japan Tankan is released at 23:50 GMT on Wednesday, which is early morning on Thursday, October 1 in Tokyo.

Economic Calendar: Thursday, October 1 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Friday, October 2 (GMT)

What to Watch This Week

RBA decision (Tuesday). Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate from 4.35% to 4.6%. A hike that matches expectations may already be priced into the Australian Dollar, so the tone of the accompanying statement and any hints about further tightening will matter more than the decision itself.

European inflation (Wednesday and Friday). France, Italy and Germany are all forecast to show higher inflation in September, and the Eurozone flash estimate on Friday is expected at 3.4% to 3.5%, up from 3.2%. Upside surprises would strengthen the case for a firmer European Central Bank and could support the Euro, while softer readings would do the opposite.

US inflation and growth (Wednesday). Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it is forecast to rise 0.3% in August. A hotter reading, combined with yields already near 5.2%, would add to the case for further Fed tightening. Personal spending is also forecast to jump, while the final Q2 GDP estimate is expected to come in lower than the previous 2.1%.

ISM Manufacturing (Thursday). After last week's strong flash PMI of 57.0, traders will look to see whether the ISM survey confirms the pickup in factory activity.

Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday). This is the week's main event. Forecasts point to a sharp slowdown to roughly 90,000 to 100,000 jobs from 162,000, with unemployment expected at 4.1% to 4.2%. A weaker report could ease pressure on the Fed to keep raising rates, while a stronger one would reinforce the tight-policy outlook and could push yields and the US Dollar higher.

Market Takeaway

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