Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Fed Hikes for First Time in 3 Years, Quiet Week Ahead (21–25 Sep 2026)

Markets absorbed one of the most consequential weeks of the year last week as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. This week is lighter on major US economic releases, giving markets time to digest the Fed’s decision and assess the outlook for further tightening. All times below are in GMT.

Last Week’s Market Snapshot

Key Developments Last Week

• The Fed hiked for the first time in three years: Policymakers voted 12-0 to raise the benchmark federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday — the first Fed rate increase since 2023.
• The Fed’s own projections point to more hikes ahead: The updated Summary of Economic Projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% by year-end 2026, with 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one additional rate increase before the year is out.
• Treasury yields moved above 5%: The 10-year Treasury yield reached around the 5% level during the week, keeping pressure on rate-sensitive assets as investors weighed the outlook for further Fed tightening.
• Big tech helped the Nasdaq outperform: Strength in major technology and semiconductor stocks helped the Nasdaq finish the week higher even as the Dow and Russell 2000 declined, with small caps hit hardest by rising borrowing costs.
• Gold and Bitcoin diverged from equities: Gold finished the week around $4,385.90, up about 0.5%, as easing oil prices reduced near-term inflation shock risk even with yields near 5%. Bitcoin also rebounded sharply, rising about 5.85% on Friday alone.

This Week’s US Economic Calendar

Biggest Event to Watch: US Flash PMIs – Wednesday, 1:45 PM GMT

With no major US economic releases at the start of the week, Wednesday’s flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs will provide the first significant update on business activity following last week’s Fed rate hike. Readings above 50 indicate expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

• Stronger-than-expected: Could reinforce the view that the US economy remains resilient despite higher interest rates and potentially support expectations for further Fed tightening.
• Weaker-than-expected: Could raise concerns that tighter financial conditions are beginning to slow business activity and may reduce expectations for additional rate hikes.

What Else to Watch This Week

Thursday’s initial jobless claims and new home sales will provide additional information on the labor and housing markets. Friday’s durable goods data and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report will offer further clues about business investment and consumer conditions. With the Fed’s own projections placing the median year-end 2026 rate at 4.1%, incoming data this week will remain important for expectations around the timing and extent of any additional tightening.

Key Takeaway for Traders

This is a relatively lighter US data week following last week’s major Fed decision, with focus shifting from the rate move itself to incoming evidence on business activity, employment, housing, and consumer conditions. USD remains sensitive to shifts in Fed-tightening expectations, while gold, Treasury yields, and equities may react to any change in the rate outlook.

Risk note: Even during a lighter data week, markets can react sharply to economic surprises, central-bank commentary, and geopolitical developments. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.