Weekly Market Recap & Calendar – Week of October 12, 2026

Wall Street ended last week with gains and fresh record highs, even as Treasury yields touched their highest level in more than two decades and Middle East headlines kept oil volatile. This week, US inflation takes centre stage with CPI on Wednesday, followed by PPI and retail sales on Thursday, while the Q3 earnings season kicks off with the big banks. Here is the recap and what to watch.

Last Week's Market Snapshot (October 5–9)

The S&P 500 hit a record high earlier in the week before easing, and the Dow posted its biggest weekly gain since early August. By sector, infrastructure led with a 3.97% gain, while technology was the weakest, falling 0.52%.

What Drove Markets Last Week

Iran and the oil market. Further tanker attacks and ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher during the week, with Brent trading around $100 to $105. Sentiment improved late in the week after President Trump signalled that the US does not intend to attack Iran before the November midterm elections, easing fears of an immediate escalation. Tensions involving the Houthis and Red Sea shipping routes also stayed in focus.

AI and technology. A report questioning OpenAI's revenue growth triggered a sell-off in chip stocks, but optimism about continued AI infrastructure investment remained a supporting factor, and tech stocks rebounded into the weekend.

FOMC Minutes (Wednesday). The minutes of the September meeting showed that most members still see an additional rate hike by the end of the year as possibly justified, citing inflation that remains too high and upside risks from energy prices and geopolitics. They also described activity as solid and the labor market as close to full employment. However, the minutes reflect the situation in mid-September, before the weak jobs report and the cooler Core PCE reading, so the data since then may reduce pressure for another hike at the next decision.

ISM Services PMI (Monday). The September reading slipped to 54.9 from 55.4, slightly below the 55.1 forecast. It stayed well above 50, so services are still expanding, just at a more moderate pace.

Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 13 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Wednesday, October 14 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Thursday, October 15 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Friday, October 16 (GMT)

What to Watch This Week

US CPI (Wednesday). This is the main event. Headline inflation is forecast to rise to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.4%, with a monthly gain of 0.5% to 0.6%. A reading above forecast would suggest price pressures are returning and make it harder for the Fed to ease, strengthening the case for higher rates for longer and possibly another hike, which would typically support the Dollar and push yields higher. A softer print would ease fears of stubborn inflation and support expectations of a less hawkish Fed. Core CPI, forecast at 2.4% to 2.5% year-on-year, is the cleaner signal.

PPI and Retail Sales (Thursday). Producer prices are forecast to rise 0.5% on the month, giving a read on pipeline inflation. Retail sales are expected to cool sharply to 0.1% to 0.3% after a 1.2% jump in August, so a stronger number would point to resilient consumer spending despite high yields.

Fed Chair Warsh (Friday). Coming right after the inflation data, the speech may give clues on how the Fed reads the latest numbers ahead of its October 28 decision.

Australia (Tuesday). NAB Business Confidence is forecast to slip to -9, and the RBA minutes follow the September rate hike to 4.60%, with traders looking for hints on the next move at the November meeting.

China and Europe (Wednesday). China's inflation and trade data will show how demand is holding up, with the trade surplus forecast to narrow to about $110 billion. ECB President Lagarde speaks twice, ahead of the bank's October 29 meeting.

UK GDP (Thursday). August GDP is forecast at -0.1% month-on-month after a 0.4% gain, so a contraction would add to a soft UK growth picture.

Earnings season. The big banks report this week, with Citi, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, Bank of America, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, and more on Thursday and Friday. Results and guidance will set the tone for the earnings season at a time when valuations are near record highs.

Market Takeaway

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