Daily Market Update – Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Australian consumer confidence just posted a much steeper drop than expected, continuing a slide that started after the RBA's latest rate hike. Later today, Canada's Ivey PMI will show whether August's surprise jump in business activity was more than a one-month blip.

Today's Key Economic Events (GMT)

*Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence releases at 11:30 PM GMT on Monday, landing early Tuesday in Sydney.

Australia Consumer Confidence: A Much Bigger Miss Than Expected

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey asks Australian households how they feel about their own finances, the broader economy, and big-ticket purchases. October's index fell 4.7%, far worse than the -1.2% forecast, though a slightly smaller decline than September's -5.2%. With 100 as the dividing line between optimism and pessimism, the index now sits at 80.4 — a second consecutive monthly drop and a six-month low.

The timing lines up with the RBA's latest move: the central bank raised its cash rate to 4.6% in late September, its fourth hike this year, and households surveyed after that decision were notably more negative than those surveyed before it. Fuel prices above A$2.30 per liter added further pressure to the mood. For traders, weak consumer confidence is an early warning sign for retail and housing-related spending, and can act as a cap on Australian Dollar gains even when rates are rising. Westpac expects another hike in early November, so today's print adds to a growing list of reasons to watch that decision, inflation data, fuel prices, and the next confidence survey due November 10 closely.

Canada Ivey PMI: Confirming or Fading August's Surge?

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index surveys Canadian purchasing managers on whether orders, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices are running above or below the previous month, with readings above 50 signaling expansion. August's reading jumped to 64.3 from 55.1, smashing the 56.2 forecast to reach its highest level since April 2022. Underlying components were broadly strong too — employment rose to 55.0 from 52.2 and inventories climbed to 61.4 from 54.9 — though the prices index also accelerated sharply, to 80.4 from 75.5, pointing to fast-rising input costs.

Today's September release, due later today, carries a consensus of 65.2 and forecast of 65.0. A print near those levels would confirm that August's strength was genuine rather than a one-off, which would typically support the Canadian Dollar and shares tied to domestic growth. A pullback toward 55 would suggest August was more of a one-month spike. The elevated prices reading from August is the bigger risk to watch either way, since persistently high input costs could limit the Bank of Canada's room to cut rates even if activity cools.

Market Takeaway

Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.

— ForexCaptain