Daily Market Update – Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today's session is centered on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, with markets widely expecting a hike, followed later in the day by the US JOLTS Job Openings report. Here's the full breakdown and what to watch.

Today's Key Economic Events (GMT)

RBA Interest Rate Decision: A Hike Is Widely Expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia has held its cash rate steady at 4.35% since May, following three earlier hikes this year. That pause was meant to manage the economy while inflation pressures on everyday goods stayed higher than the Bank wants. Today, markets widely expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to 4.60% — its highest level since 2024 — as officials have flagged oil prices, Middle East tensions, strong business and technology investment, and weak productivity as the key forces keeping costs elevated.

For traders, the cash rate is one of the most closely watched tools because it directly affects borrowing costs across the economy. Higher rates typically support the Australian Dollar, since international investors are drawn to better returns on AUD-denominated cash, while they tend to pressure Australian equities by raising the cost of capital for companies. Because a hike to 4.6% is already the consensus and forecast, the bigger market reaction is likely to come from a surprise outcome — either a hold, which would shock markets more than an expected hike, or from the tone of the RBA's accompanying statement and any signals about further tightening ahead.

US JOLTS Job Openings: A Gentle Cooling in Labor Demand

The JOLTS report tracks the number of unfilled jobs US employers are actively trying to fill. July's reading came in at 7.271 million, a modest improvement from a downwardly revised 7.182 million in June, though still below what analysts had expected. Quits and layoffs both stayed relatively low, a combination that typically points to a labor market cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply. Manufacturing added more openings, while transportation and professional and business services saw fewer.

Today's release covers August, with both consensus and forecast at 7.24 million — broadly in line with July's print. For traders, this report works as a health check on labor demand: a higher-than-expected number would suggest employers are still expanding and needing workers, which could support the Dollar and push yields higher as it reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates. A weaker print would reinforce the cooling narrative, potentially weighing on the Dollar while offering some support to equities on hopes of easier policy ahead. As always, watch for revisions to prior months alongside the headline figure, since those can shift the underlying story as much as the new data itself.

Market Takeaway

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