Daily Market Update – 11 September 2026: US CPI Day
Daily Market Update – 11 September 2026: US CPI Day
Today is the week’s other big event — US CPI for August — landing right after yesterday’s ECB rate hike. UK GDP opens the day, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment closes it out. All times below are in GMT.
Today’s Calendar at a Glance
| GMT Time | Event | Previous | Consensus | TE Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 AM | UK GDP MoM (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 12:30 PM | US Core Inflation Rate MoM (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 PM | US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 12:30 PM | US Inflation Rate MoM (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 12:30 PM | US Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 02:00 PM | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Sep) | 51.7 | — | 51.5 |
🇬🇧 UK GDP MoM – 06:00 AM GMT
July’s monthly growth is expected to cool to 0.1% from June’s solid 0.3% — still positive, but a step down in momentum. A beat above 0.1% would support GBP; a flat or negative print (matching the 0.0% consensus) would raise fresh questions about UK growth momentum heading into autumn.
🇺🇸 US CPI – Today’s Biggest Event (12:30 PM GMT)
What is this? August inflation data lands in four parts today: Core CPI (ex food & energy) is forecast at 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, cooling slightly from 2.5%. Headline CPI is expected to jump to 0.4% MoM — a notable pickup from July’s 0.1% — while the annual rate holds steady at 3.4%.
Why it matters: This release comes right after last week’s blowout jobs report and yesterday’s ECB hike, making it the key data point for whether the Fed leans toward a hike or stays patient. A notable MoM jump like the 0.4% forecast, even with YoY holding flat, could reinforce the case for tighter policy.
- Hotter-than-expected: Combined with the strong jobs data, would meaningfully raise the odds of a Fed hike — likely boosting USD while pressuring stocks and bonds.
- Cooler-than-expected: Would ease rate-hike pressure, likely supporting equities while capping USD gains.
🇺🇸 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – 02:00 PM GMT
This preliminary September reading is expected to hold roughly steady at 51.5, just below August’s 51.7 — both readings still reflecting a fairly cautious consumer overall. Since this comes right after the CPI release, watch whether sentiment shifts in response to today’s inflation surprise, if any.
Key Takeaway for Traders
USD is in sharp focus today. With the ECB having just moved on rates yesterday, a hot CPI print today would tighten the policy divergence story between the Fed and ECB even further — a combination that could drive some of the sharpest EUR/USD moves of the week.
Risk note: CPI is one of the highest-impact releases on the calendar and can cause sharp, fast price swings within seconds of the announcement. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss. NFA, DYOR.
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