Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Jobs Beat Fuels Rate Fears, ECB & US CPI Ahead (8–11 Sep 2026)
Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Jobs Beat Fuels Rate Fears, ECB & US CPI Ahead (8–11 Sep 2026)
Stocks closed mixed last week as a much stronger-than-expected jobs report reignited rate-hike fears just as oil prices surged on renewed Iran tensions. This week brings a likely ECB rate hike on Thursday and the always-important US CPI on Friday. All times below are in GMT.
Last Week’s Market Snapshot
| S&P 500 | +0.09% |
| Nasdaq | +0.40% |
| Dow Jones | -0.27% |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.78% (+1.31%) |
| Best Sector | Energy (+2.20%) |
| Worst Sector | Consumer Discretionary (-1.96%) |
Key Developments Last Week
- August jobs report smashed expectations: Non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, well above the 55,000 forecast and a sharp rebound from July’s meager 21,000. The strong print reduced hopes the Fed could hold rates steady for long, pushing bond yields higher and pressuring rate-sensitive stocks.
- ISM Services beat too: The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.4 from 54.1, above the 54.1 forecast, reinforcing the resilient-economy narrative while adding to concerns that strong activity could keep inflation elevated.
- Iran tensions resumed: Renewed strikes and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation worries and lifting the 10-year yield toward 4.8%.
- Tech held up better than the broader market: A recovery in chip and memory stocks helped the Nasdaq and S&P 500 outperform, while the Dow lagged on weakness in more rate-sensitive names.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
| Date | GMT Time | Country | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 8 Sep | 12:30 AM | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep) | 6% | -3.6% |
| Tue, 8 Sep | 01:30 AM | AU | NAB Business Confidence (Aug) | -6 | -8 |
| Tue, 8 Sep | 03:00 AM | CN | Balance of Trade (Aug) | $112.5B | $120.0B |
| Tue, 8 Sep | 06:00 AM | DE | Balance of Trade (Jul) | €15.4B | €17.5B |
| Wed, 9 Sep | 01:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Thu, 10 Sep | 12:15 PM | EA | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 2.4% | 2.65% |
| Thu, 10 Sep | 12:30 PM | US | PPI MoM (Aug) | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Thu, 10 Sep | 12:45 PM | EA | ECB Press Conference | — | — |
| Thu, 10 Sep | 02:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales (Aug) | 4.06M | 4.05M |
| Fri, 11 Sep | 06:00 AM | GB | GDP MoM (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Fri, 11 Sep | 12:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Fri, 11 Sep | 12:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Fri, 11 Sep | 02:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Sep) | 51.7 | 51.5 |
Biggest Events to Watch
Thursday – ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 PM GMT): The forecast points to a hike from 2.4% to 2.65% — a notable move after a long stretch of cuts and holds. If it lands as expected, the press conference tone 30 minutes later will matter most for EUR’s next move; a surprise hold instead of a hike would be a significant dovish shock.
Friday – US CPI (12:30 PM GMT): Headline inflation is forecast to hold steady at 3.4% YoY, while Core CPI is expected to ease slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%. Coming right after last week’s blowout jobs report, this is the number that determines whether the Fed leans toward another hike or stays patient.
- Hotter-than-expected: Combined with the strong jobs data, this would meaningfully raise the odds of a Fed hike — likely boosting USD while pressuring stocks and bonds.
- Cooler-than-expected: Would ease some of the rate-hike pressure built up after Friday’s jobs beat, likely supporting equities while capping USD gains.
Risk note: A central bank rate decision and CPI landing in the same week can produce unusually sharp, layered volatility. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.
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