Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Fed Holds Rates, NFP Friday (3–7 Aug 2026)
Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Fed Holds Rates, NFP Friday (3–7 Aug 2026)
US stocks closed last week higher after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and strong earnings from Microsoft eased investor worries about AI spending. Semiconductor and memory stocks also bounced back sharply on renewed confidence in AI infrastructure demand. This week brings a fresh batch of data, capped off by Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report. All times below are in GMT.
Last Week’s Market Snapshot
| S&P 500 | +1.05% |
| Nasdaq | +1.59% |
| Dow Jones | +1.04% |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.71% |
| Best Sector | Consumer Discretionary (+6.11%) |
| Worst Sector | Utilities (-4.19%) |
Key Developments Last Week
- Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with expectations — but three committee members pushed for a 0.25% hike, showing growing internal disagreement. The Fed Chair reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target without signalling the next move.
- Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge) eased to 3.3% year-over-year from 3.4%, while headline PCE cooled to 3.7% from 4.1%, mainly on lower energy prices — a sign of continued disinflation, though still well above the 2% target.
- Middle East tensions remained a background risk, with disruptions and threats around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes keeping oil-price risk elevated, even as diplomatic talks continued between regional parties.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
| Date | GMT Time | Country | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 3 Aug | 01:45 AM | CN | RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 51.7 | 51.5 |
| Mon, 3 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 53.3 | 53.7 |
| Tue, 4 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) | 7.594M | 7.3M |
| Wed, 5 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI (Jul) | 54.0 | 54.5 |
| Thu, 6 Aug | 01:30 AM | AU | Balance of Trade (Jun) | A$-3.018B | A$-1.8B |
| Fri, 7 Aug | 03:00 AM | CN | Balance of Trade (Jul) | $125.62B | $105.0B |
| Fri, 7 Aug | 06:00 AM | DE | Balance of Trade (Jun) | €19.1B | €17.2B |
| Fri, 7 Aug | 12:30 PM | CA | Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Fri, 7 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) | 57K | 79.0K |
| Fri, 7 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 4.2% | 4.2% |
Biggest Event to Watch: US Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday, 12:30 PM GMT
July’s jobs report is the standout event of the week. The previous reading came in soft at just 57K jobs added, well below trend, while forecasts point to a rebound to around 79K. A weak print would reinforce labor-market cooling and boost bets on Fed rate cuts, typically weighing on the US Dollar and lifting equities. A strong beat would ease those concerns and could support the Dollar while pressuring rate-cut expectations.
Risk note: High-impact events like Non-Farm Payrolls can cause sharp, fast price swings within seconds of release, along with wider spreads and slippage. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.
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