Forex Market Update Today (4 August 2026) - US Trade Deficit & JOLTs Data

Today’s calendar centers on trade and labor data from Canada and the US. The standout release is US JOLTs Job Openings, alongside back-to-back trade balance reports from both economies. All times below are in GMT.

Today’s Calendar

GMT Time	Event	Previous	Consensus	TE Forecast
12:30 PM	Canada Balance of Trade (Jun)	C$4.24B	C$3.0B	C$4.8B
12:30 PM	US Balance of Trade (Jun)	$-77.6B	$-73.0B	$-73.0B
02:00 PM	US JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)	7.594M	7.45M	7.3M

🇨🇦 Canada Balance of Trade – 12:30 PM GMT

Canada posted a strong trade surplus of C$4.24B in May, its best reading in months, fueled by rising global demand for Canadian minerals and aluminum. A trade surplus means Canada sold more abroad than it imported, which typically supports demand for the Canadian Dollar as foreign buyers convert into CAD to pay for these goods.

What to watch: The bigger risk isn’t today’s number but what comes next — the US has proposed steep 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian products. Since the US is Canada’s largest trading partner, this could squeeze future export earnings and pressure CAD even if today’s data beats expectations.

🇺🇸 US Balance of Trade – 12:30 PM GMT

The US trade deficit widened sharply to $77.6B in May as imports of goods like phones, cars, and crude oil rose while exports of computer equipment and gold fell. A wider deficit means more Dollars are flowing out to pay for imports than are coming in from exports, which is a drag on overall GDP growth.

What to watch: New US tariffs aimed at narrowing this gap could add volatility — while intended to protect domestic industry, they also raise consumer prices and risk retaliation from trading partners. This is a slow-building USD headwind to monitor rather than a single-day mover.

🇺🇸 US JOLTs Job Openings – 02:00 PM GMT

May’s reading hit 7.594 million openings, a two-year high and well above expectations, led by hiring demand in wholesale trade, real estate, and hospitality. A strong labor market like this usually supports the US Dollar since it signals a resilient economy to global investors.

What to watch: Too many unfilled roles can also push wages — and inflation — higher, which may keep the Fed cautious about cutting rates. A beat on today’s forecast (7.45M) would reinforce a “higher for longer” rate narrative, supporting USD but adding pressure on equities.

Key Takeaway for Traders

CAD and USD pairs are the main focus today. Watch how CAD reacts to the trade surplus against the backdrop of tariff headlines, and keep an eye on USD strength around the 2:00 PM JOLTs release — a strong beat could reinforce the Fed’s patient stance on rate cuts.

Risk note: Trade and labor data can trigger fast, sharp price moves, especially when actual figures diverge meaningfully from consensus. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.