US CPI, UK GDP & PPI – Weekly Market Recap & Calendar Nov 9, 2026

Wall Street had its worst week in months as an AI and chip sell-off after the US midterm elections overshadowed a strong jobs report that revived bets on a December Fed hike. This week, October CPI on Tuesday is the main event, followed by UK GDP, US PPI and a heavy round of Fed speakers. Here is the recap and what to watch.

Last Week's Market Snapshot (November 2–6)

It was the S&P 500's worst week since the spring and its fourth weekly loss in a row. By sector, communication services led with a 4.89% gain, while energy was the weakest, falling about 12%.

What Drove Markets Last Week

Post-election rally, then a sharp sell-off. Stocks jumped on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining more than 1,500 points, as the election outcome became clearer. On Thursday, however, markets plunged: the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the Dow 3.4% and the Nasdaq 5.5%, its steepest one-day drop in 19 months, taking it into correction territory more than 10% below its October 6 record. The VIX volatility index jumped almost 70% to above 28. The trigger was investor concern that Democratic gains in key states such as Texas and Michigan could mean stricter regulation of AI and data centers, which hit chip and AI stocks hardest. Stocks recovered part of the loss on Friday.

Oil falls. Despite ongoing Iran headlines, oil dropped sharply, with WTI down about 13% on the week and Brent below $100, as the election results raised hopes of a de-escalation in the conflict. That dragged energy stocks lower and helped bonds.

Strong October jobs report (Friday). Non-farm payrolls rose by 165,000, far above the 65,000 forecast and up from 60,000 in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% and revisions added 84,000 jobs. The data pushed the odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike on December 9 back up to roughly 77% and supported the Dollar, with Fed officials such as Mary Daly signalling that further tightening may be needed.

Bank of England (Thursday). The BoE raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% in an 8-1 vote, its first hike since 2023, with Catherine Mann voting for 50 basis points. Governor Bailey said he could see the argument for a further increase unless there is real progress toward settling the Middle East conflict, and the Bank now projects UK inflation near 5% by mid-2027. Sterling was little changed.

Economic Calendar: Monday, November 9 (GMT)

*Westpac Consumer Confidence releases at 11:30 PM GMT on Monday, which is early morning on Tuesday in Sydney.

Economic Calendar: Tuesday, November 10 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Thursday, November 12 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Friday, November 13 (GMT)

What to Watch This Week

US CPI (Tuesday, 13:30 GMT). This is the key release, coming after a strong jobs report and with a December hike roughly 77% priced. Headline inflation is forecast to hold at 3.7% year-on-year, with a monthly gain of 0.2% to 0.3% after 0.6% in September, while core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6%. An annual reading above 3.7% or a hot core number would strengthen the case for a hike and support the Dollar and Treasury yields, while a softer print would ease pressure and could help stocks recover.

PPI (Friday). Producer prices are forecast to rise only 0.2% to 0.4% after a 1.3% jump in September, a sign that pipeline pressure may be easing as oil prices fall.

UK GDP (Thursday, 07:00 GMT). Third-quarter growth is forecast at 0.4% to 0.7% after 0.5% in the second quarter. The data arrives a week after the BoE's hike and its warning on inflation, so a weak print would raise questions about stagflation, while a strong one would support further tightening bets and Sterling.

Australia (Monday night and Tuesday). Westpac Consumer Confidence is forecast to improve to -2.6% from -4.7%, while NAB Business Confidence is forecast to slip to -14 from -13, after the RBA's hike to 4.85% last week.

Germany and housing. Germany's September trade surplus is forecast to narrow to €17.6B to €19.4B, and US existing home sales are forecast around 4.0 million on Thursday.

Tech, earnings and Fed speakers. After last week's rout, watch whether chip and AI stocks stabilize. Applied Materials, Cisco, Nebius and CoreWeave report this week, and several Fed officials speak, who will be asked about the December hike.

Market Takeaway

Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Volatility around inflation data can be extreme.