US CPI & Australia Confidence – Daily Market Update Nov 10, 2026

Today's main event is the US October CPI report at 13:30 GMT, with a December Fed hike roughly 77% priced and every tenth of a point likely to matter. Earlier, Australian consumer and business confidence both fell further, adding to signs that the RBA's tightening is biting.

Today's Key Economic Events (GMT)

US CPI: The Key Test for a December Hike

The Consumer Price Index measures the cost of living, and it is the most influential inflation report for rate expectations. In September, consumer prices rose 0.6% on the month, driven largely by a surge in energy prices, and the annual rate climbed to 3.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% from a year earlier.

For October, analysts expect the monthly gain to slow to 0.2% to 0.3%, but the annual rate is forecast to rise to 3.8% to 3.9%, partly because of how last year's prices drop out of the comparison. Core is expected at 0.2% on the month and 2.7% to 2.8% year-on-year. The report follows a strong October jobs report, and futures price roughly a 77% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the Fed's December 9 meeting.

A hotter print, especially in core, would strengthen the case for a hike, supporting the US Dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring stocks that are already recovering from last week's AI sell-off. A softer reading would ease fears of entrenched inflation and could reduce hike odds, helping equities and weighing on the Dollar. Expect sharp moves in EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold around 13:30 GMT, and consider wider spreads at the release.

Australia: Confidence Slides After the RBA Hike

Westpac consumer confidence fell another 2.7% in November, to 78.2, a four-year low and its weakest level since late 2022, when inflation was running near 8%. It follows declines of 5.2% in September and 4.7% in October and shows that households are feeling pressure from higher borrowing costs and prices.

The NAB business survey was just as weak. Business confidence slipped to -15 in October from a revised -14, far below its long-run average of +5. Business conditions fell to -2, the lowest since August 2020, as forward orders dropped sharply, and retail reported the weakest confidence, conditions and forward orders of any industry. Cost pressures remain elevated, with purchase costs rising at a quarterly rate of 2.4%.

The data lands a week after the RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85%, its fifth hike this year, in a split vote with a cautious tone. Weak confidence suggests growth is slowing in the second half of 2026 while inflation stays stubborn, which complicates the RBA's task and tends to weigh on the Australian Dollar and on stocks that depend on domestic spending.

Market Takeaway

Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Volatility around inflation data can be extreme.