RBA Hike, JOLTs & Midterms – Daily Market Update Nov 3, 2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to an 18-year high overnight, but a split vote and a softer tone pushed the Australian Dollar lower. Later today, the US releases JOLTs job openings while voters head to the polls in the midterm elections. Here is the breakdown.

Today's Key Economic Events (GMT)

RBA: A Split Hike to 4.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, as markets expected. It is the fifth increase this year and takes the rate to its highest level since late 2008. The decision was far from unanimous: six board members voted to hike, while three voted to leave the rate unchanged at 4.60%. The move came a week after data showed Australian inflation jumping to 4.3% in September.

The tone of the statement mattered as much as the decision. The RBA dropped its earlier explicit reference to raising the cash rate further if needed, and Governor Michele Bullock signalled a wait-and-see approach, noting that the scale of this year's tightening has yet to feed through to the economy. Traders read that as a sign the hiking cycle may be close to its end, and the Australian Dollar fell about 0.3% to around 0.6976 against the US Dollar.

It is a good example of why a rate hike does not always lift a currency. When the move is already priced in, the guidance on future moves drives the reaction, and a more cautious outlook can weigh on the currency even as rates rise. Higher borrowing costs also remain a headwind for Australian stocks, particularly banks, housing and consumer sectors. Traders will now watch inflation data and the next RBA meeting for any change in the outlook.

US JOLTs: A Look at Labor Demand

The JOLTs report counts unfilled jobs that US employers are trying to fill. In August, job openings fell to about 7.079 million from a revised 7.335 million in July, a sign that demand for workers is cooling. For September, consensus is 7.13 million and the forecast is 7.06 million, close to August's level.

The data helps traders gauge what the Fed might do next. Plentiful openings tend to push wages higher, which can keep inflation elevated and strengthen the case for another rate hike, supporting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. A weaker number would point to easing labor demand and could lower expectations for a December hike. The report arrives at 15:00 GMT, since US clocks went back last weekend, and just ahead of Friday's payrolls report, so any surprise will be closely watched.

US Midterm Elections: What Markets Care About

Voters decide the balance of power in Congress today, and markets tend to dislike uncertainty, especially with earnings season, heavy AI spending concerns and Friday's jobs report all in play. The election outcome will not be fully clear until after the US trading day, so volatility around the result is possible.

Historically, the market reaction to midterms has been modest and short-lived. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 15% in the twelve months after a midterm election, once voting ends and policy direction becomes clearer, although past performance does not guarantee future results. A divided government has been common, and it tends to reduce the odds of sweeping tax or spending changes, which investors usually welcome. A single party controlling both chambers could raise questions about fiscal expansion and its impact on inflation and bond yields.

Specific sectors could also react, depending on the result, including technology and AI, healthcare, defense and crypto, because Congress shapes regulation, drug pricing and spending priorities. Over the longer term, corporate profits and the jobs market tend to matter more for stock valuations than election results.

Market Takeaway

Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Volatility around central bank decisions and elections can be extreme.