RBA, BoE & NFP Week – Weekly Market Recap & Calendar Nov 2, 2026

Wall Street ended its third straight losing week as disappointing Big Tech earnings revived doubts about the cost of AI spending, while oil and inflation worries kept December rate-hike fears alive. This week the RBA and the Bank of England both decide on rates, the US holds its midterm elections, and the October jobs report arrives on Friday. Here is the recap and what to watch.

Last Week's Market Snapshot (October 26–30)

Friday was the toughest day: the Nasdaq fell 2.86% and the S&P 500 1.82%, both their worst day since June. The S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since mid-September, and the Nasdaq had its worst month since March 2025. By sector, healthcare led with a 3.12% gain, while communication services was the weakest, sliding 5.32%.

What Drove Markets Last Week

Big Tech earnings and AI spending. Alphabet fell 12.6% on Thursday after reporting negative free cash flow alongside quarterly capital spending of about $51 billion, even though Google Cloud revenue more than doubled. Amazon missed estimates while signalling more AI spending, and Intel dropped about 28% on Friday after weak guidance, its biggest one-day loss in decades. Microsoft was the exception, reporting positive free cash flow. Investors rotated into defensive sectors such as healthcare.

Iran and oil. Rising tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns, adding to fears of another Fed rate hike in December.

US GDP and inflation (Thursday). Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4%, above the 3.2% forecast and up from 2.2%, while Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year, matching forecasts and up from 3.0%. Together they point to a resilient economy with sticky inflation, which makes easing harder for the Fed.

Central banks. The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. The ECB also held, while Christine Lagarde announced she will leave her post next February.

US consumer confidence (Tuesday). The Conference Board index jumped to 91.7 in October, far above the 81.2 forecast and 84.2 in September, showing a sharp improvement in household sentiment that also fuels concerns about renewed demand-driven inflation.

Economic Calendar: Monday, November 2 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Tuesday, November 3 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Wednesday, November 4 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Thursday, November 5 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Friday, November 6 (GMT)

Note: US clocks went back on November 1, so US data now releases one hour later in GMT than in October.

What to Watch This Week

RBA decision (Tuesday, 03:30 GMT). The market consensus is for a 25 basis point hike from 4.6% to 4.85%. With Australian business confidence weakening, the focus will be on the statement and any hint on whether more hikes are likely. Australia's September trade balance on Thursday is forecast at A$1B to A$1.5B, up from A$0.495B.

US midterm elections (Tuesday). The result will decide whether Congress is divided or controlled by one party. A divided government is typically welcomed by investors because it reduces the odds of sweeping tax or spending changes, while single-party control could raise concerns about fiscal expansion that might reignite inflation. Expect volatility around the result.

ISM PMIs (Monday and Wednesday). Manufacturing is forecast at 54.7 and services at 54.5 to 54.8, both comfortably above 50. Strong readings would support the Dollar and keep December hike bets alive, while a drop could ease them.

Eurozone inflation (Wednesday, 10:00 GMT). The October flash estimate is expected at 3.8% to 3.9%. With the ECB on hold but a December hike still in play, a higher reading would support the Euro.

BoE decision (Thursday, 12:00 GMT). A hike from 3.75% to 4.00% is widely expected after UK inflation reached 3.5% in September, with the focus on the vote split and guidance on further tightening.

US jobs report (Friday, 13:30 GMT). Non-farm payrolls are forecast at 40K to 65K after just 29K in September, with unemployment at 4.2%. A weak number would ease pressure on the Fed, while a strong one would reinforce expectations of a December hike. Canada's unemployment rate and the Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary reading, forecast at 47.0 to 47.3, also come out on Friday.

Tech and earnings. After Big Tech's disappointing reports, watch whether the sell-off continues or buyers step in, and how oil reacts to the Iran headlines.

Market Takeaway

Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Volatility around central bank decisions, elections and jobs data can be extreme.

— ForexCaptain