Weekly Market Recap & Calendar – Week of October 26, 2026
Weekly Market Recap & Calendar – Week of October 26, 2026
Wall Street ended a second straight losing week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as an oil spike and worries about AI spending weighed on tech, while the Dow edged higher. This week is one of the busiest of the year: the Fed, Bank of Canada, RBNZ, ECB and Bank of Japan all meet, US GDP and PCE inflation land on Thursday, and Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report earnings. Here is the recap and what to watch.
Last Week's Market Snapshot (October 19–23)
| Market | Weekly Move | Friday Close |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.47% | 7,623.68 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.71% | 25,955.34 |
| Dow Jones | +0.41% | 52,215.16 |
| US 10-Year Yield | Lower on the week | 4.99% |
| Brent Crude Oil | Peaked above $115 during the week | – |
It was the second weekly loss in a row for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. By sector, energy led with a 1.60% gain, while communication services was the weakest, falling 4.36%.
What Drove Markets Last Week
Iran and oil. Reports that the US is considering resuming military strikes after the elections triggered threats from Tehran to target refineries in Gulf states. Intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and risks to ships in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $115 a barrel at its peak, reviving worries that energy costs will feed through to the wider economy. Treasuries also acted as a safe haven, and the 10-year yield eased to 4.99%.
AI spending worries. Concerns about heavy AI spending and how it is funded kept pressure on tech. Meta and Lam Research results disappointed investors earlier in the week, and several large tech names fell on Friday even as the Dow rotated lower.
US Services PMI (Friday). The October flash reading came in at 57.9, in line with forecasts and down from 58.8 in September. It stayed far above 50, signalling strong growth in services, but also kept inflation concerns alive.
US Manufacturing PMI (Friday). The October flash reading rose to 56.0, above the 55.4 forecast and 55.9 in September. Strong factory activity points to a resilient economy, which may complicate any near-term easing by the Fed.
Economic Calendar: Monday, October 26 (GMT)
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 AM | Germany | Ifo Business Climate (Oct) | 89.9 | 89.8 | 89.5 |
Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 27 (GMT)
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 PM | United States | Durable Goods Orders MoM (Sep) | 0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
Economic Calendar: Wednesday, October 28 (GMT)
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 AM | New Zealand | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | – | – | – |
| 07:00 AM | Germany | GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) | -30.6 | -30.0 | -32 |
| 01:45 PM | Canada | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 01:45 PM | Canada | BoC Monetary Policy Report | – | – | – |
| 06:00 PM | United States | Fed Interest Rate Decision (upper bound) | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 06:30 PM | United States | Fed Press Conference | – | – | – |
| Time TBC | United Kingdom | Autumn Budget 2026 | – | – | – |
Economic Calendar: Thursday, October 29 (GMT)
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 AM | Japan | Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.6 |
| 12:30 PM | United States | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q3) | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| 12:30 PM | United States | Core PCE Price Index MoM (Sep) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 PM | United States | Personal Income MoM (Sep) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 PM | United States | Personal Spending MoM (Sep) | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 01:15 PM | Eurozone | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| 01:15 PM | Eurozone | ECB Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 01:45 PM | Eurozone | ECB Press Conference | – | – | – |
Economic Calendar: Friday, October 30 (GMT)
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 AM | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.25% |
| 08:00 AM | Spain | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q3) | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 08:00 AM | Spain | GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3) | 2.6% | – | 2.6% |
| 09:00 AM | Germany | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q3) | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 09:00 AM | Germany | GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3) | 1.0% | – | 1.0% |
| 10:00 AM | Eurozone | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q3) | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 10:00 AM | Eurozone | GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3) | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 01:00 PM | Germany | Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Oct) | 3.3% | – | 3.3% |
What to Watch This Week
Fed decision (Wednesday, 18:00 GMT). The Fed is expected to hold its target range at 3.75%-4.00%, a move that is widely priced in. The focus will be on the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30 GMT. After hot CPI and PPI readings but a weak September jobs report, any hint that rates will stay restrictive for longer, or that another hike is possible later in the year, could weigh on equities and lift the Dollar. Signals pointing to an easier path would support risk assets.
Bank of Canada and RBNZ (Wednesday). The BoC is expected to raise its rate from 2.25% to 2.50% at 13:45 GMT, with a Monetary Policy Report published alongside. The RBNZ also announces at 01:00 GMT. The UK government presents its Autumn Budget the same day, one week before the Bank of England's November 5 decision.
Big Tech earnings (Wednesday and Thursday). Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on Wednesday, hours after the Fed decision, and Amazon and Intel follow on Thursday. After last week's AI-driven sell-off, investors want proof that heavy AI spending is paying off, so cloud growth and capex guidance will set the tone for tech.
US GDP and PCE (Thursday). Third-quarter GDP is forecast to accelerate to about 3.1% to 3.2% from 2.2%, while Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected at 0.3% on the month. Personal spending is forecast to cool sharply to 0.3% from 0.9%. Strong growth with firm inflation would reinforce the case for higher rates for longer.
ECB (Thursday, 13:15 GMT). The ECB is expected to hold its main rate at 2.65% and its deposit rate at 2.50%, so traders will focus on the press conference at 13:45 GMT for clues on the next move.
Bank of Japan (Friday, 03:00 GMT). The BoJ is expected to keep its rate at 1.25%, so the Yen will react mainly to the statement and Governor's comments.
Eurozone growth (Friday). Q3 flash GDP is forecast to slow sharply, with Eurozone growth at about 0.1% to 0.2% from 0.6%, and Germany around flat. Combined with German inflation at 3.3%, a weak reading would raise stagflation worries and could weigh on the Euro.
Geopolitics. Oil near $100 or higher and the risk of a renewed US-Iran confrontation remain the main swing factors for inflation expectations and markets.
Market Takeaway
| Currency | Key Driver This Week |
|---|---|
| USD | Fed decision and Warsh press conference on Wednesday, then Q3 GDP and Core PCE on Thursday |
| CAD | Bank of Canada decision on Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 2.50% expected |
| EUR | ECB press conference on Thursday and Q3 GDP on Friday |
| JPY | BoJ decision on Friday morning |
| GBP | Autumn Budget on Wednesday ahead of the BoE's November 5 decision |
| NZD | RBNZ decision early Wednesday |
Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Volatility around central bank decisions can be extreme.
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