Weekly Market Recap & Calendar – Week of October 5, 2026

Wall Street ended last week mixed as rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and energy-market risks weighed on sentiment. A much weaker-than-expected September jobs report on Friday then reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike and helped U.S. stocks recover from earlier losses. This week, attention turns to the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday for more detail on policymakers' views on inflation, employment, and the path for interest rates.

Last Week's Market Snapshot (September 28–October 2)

U.S. equities finished the week mixed, with the Nasdaq outperforming while the Dow declined. A significantly weaker September employment report on Friday — with only 29,000 jobs added — reduced expectations for another October Fed rate hike and helped stocks recover. The unemployment rate also increased to 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month over month, bringing annual wage growth down to 3.0%.

What Drove Markets Last Week

Middle East tensions and energy prices. Ongoing tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets in focus. Concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows and elevated energy prices continued to add to inflation risks, while changes in oil prices remained an important factor for bond yields and monetary-policy expectations.

China's fuel export halt. China announced a halt on fuel-product exports for October, adding to concerns about global refined-fuel supply and keeping energy-related inflation pressures in focus.

Core PCE inflation. August Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, increased 3.0% year over year, below the 3.3% forecast and unchanged from the previous month. The softer inflation reading reduced some of the pressure for additional near-term tightening.

September jobs report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, well below the 90,000 economist consensus. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased only 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year. August payroll growth was revised down to 133,000, while July was revised to a 10,000 decline. The weaker labor-market data reduced expectations for another October rate hike, although inflation and longer-term Treasury yields remain important risks for the Fed outlook.

Economic Calendar: Monday, October 5 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Tuesday, October 6 (GMT)

*Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence release is listed at 11:30 PM GMT on Monday, which falls early Tuesday in Sydney.

Economic Calendar: Wednesday, October 7 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Thursday, October 8 (GMT)

Economic Calendar: Friday, October 9 (GMT)

What to Watch This Week

FOMC Minutes (Wednesday). This is the week's main U.S. monetary-policy event. Investors will look for details on how policymakers assessed inflation, the cooling labor market, and the case for further rate increases. Following the weak September jobs report, any indication of greater concern about employment could reinforce expectations for a more cautious near-term policy stance. Conversely, continued concern about above-target inflation could support the case for keeping further rate increases on the table.

US ISM Services PMI (Monday). The services sector represents a large portion of U.S. economic activity, making the September ISM reading an important test of whether business activity is continuing to expand. The market consensus is around 55.7, compared with 55.4 previously.

Germany's Trade Balance (Thursday). The market expects an August trade surplus of around €19.5B, compared with €21.3B previously. The release may provide another indication of the strength of German exports and external demand.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday). The preliminary October reading will provide an updated view of household sentiment. The current consensus is around 48.1, with a forecast near 48.6. Changes in consumer confidence may be relevant for expectations around household spending and economic growth.

Market Takeaway

Risk note: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.