Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Jobs Shock Fuels Rally, US CPI Wednesday (9–14 Aug 2026)
Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Jobs Shock Fuels Rally, US CPI Wednesday (9–14 Aug 2026)
US stocks surged last week as easing Iran tensions and a much weaker-than-expected jobs report combined to boost risk appetite and dovish Fed bets. This week, all eyes turn to Wednesday’s US CPI release, alongside a busy calendar spanning China, Australia, the UK, and the US. All times below are in GMT.
Last Week’s Market Snapshot
| S&P 500 | +3.58% |
| Nasdaq | +5.19% |
| Dow Jones | +2.96% |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.64% (-1.83%) |
| Best Sector | Technology (+7.20%) |
| Worst Sector | Energy (-3.44%) |
Key Developments Last Week
- Geopolitical relief: A halted US strike on Iran and progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased oil-supply fears, though the strait remains disrupted and tensions flared again late in the week after the UAE accused Iran of attacking a tanker linked to ADNOC.
- ADP jobs miss: Private payrolls added just 44K jobs in July, well below the 68K expected and a sharp slowdown from June’s 95K — an early sign of labor market cooling.
- Official jobs report shock: Non-farm payrolls actually fell by 23K in July versus forecasts for a gain of 85K. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, but only because labor force participation fell to its lowest level in over five years. Wage growth also slowed to 3.2% year-over-year, the weakest since May 2021.
- Market reaction: The weak jobs data sharply reduced expectations of any near-term Fed rate hike, reinforcing a more cautious, dovish policy outlook — a key driver behind last week’s stock rally and falling bond yields.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
| Date | GMT Time | Country | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 9 Aug | 01:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Tue, 11 Aug | 01:30 AM | AU | NAB Business Confidence (Jul) | -5 | -6 |
| Tue, 11 Aug | 04:30 AM | AU | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| Tue, 11 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales (Jul) | 4.09M | 4.06M |
| Wed, 12 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Wed, 12 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Wed, 12 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wed, 12 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Thu, 13 Aug | 06:00 AM | GB | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2) | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Thu, 13 Aug | 06:00 AM | GB | GDP MoM (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thu, 13 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | PPI MoM (Jul) | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| Fri, 14 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Retail Sales MoM (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Fri, 14 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Aug) | 55.2 | 54.6 |
Biggest Event to Watch: US CPI – Wednesday, 12:30 PM GMT
July’s inflation report is this week’s main event, landing just days after a shockingly weak jobs report reshaped rate expectations. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY), while headline CPI is expected flat at 0.0% MoM (3.4% YoY), both cooler than June’s readings.
- Dovish scenario (inflation cools further): Would reinforce the weak-labor-market narrative from last week, reducing pressure on the Fed to hike and likely extending support for stocks while keeping the Dollar capped.
- Hawkish scenario (inflation surprises higher): Would revive fears of sticky price pressures, pushing back against rate-cut bets and likely weighing on both equities and bonds.
Risk note: High-impact releases like CPI can cause sharp, fast price swings within seconds of the announcement, along with wider spreads and slippage. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.
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