Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Jackson Hole Aftermath, NFP Friday Ahead (31 Aug – 4 Sep 2026)
Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Jackson Hole Aftermath, NFP Friday Ahead (31 Aug – 4 Sep 2026)
Stocks closed higher last week on a blowout Nvidia earnings report, though a hawkish tone from the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole capped gains and triggered late-week profit-taking. This week is loaded with PMI data and central bank action, capped off by Friday’s US jobs report. All times below are in GMT.
Last Week’s Market Snapshot
| S&P 500 | +0.49% |
| Nasdaq | +0.85% |
| Dow Jones | +0.53% |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.73% (-0.34%) |
| Best Sector | Communication Services (+1.43%) |
| Worst Sector | Industrials (-1.73%) |
Key Developments Last Week
- Nvidia earnings reignited AI optimism: Exceptionally strong results renewed confidence in AI infrastructure demand, sparking a sharp rally across tech and semiconductor stocks.
- Jackson Hole turned hawkish: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains elevated and the central bank is prepared to keep tightening if necessary — reigniting September rate-hike expectations, pushing short-term yields higher, and triggering Friday profit-taking.
- Core & headline PCE both ran hot: July Core PCE held at 3.3% YoY (matching expectations but showing no further cooling), while headline PCE came in at 3.7%, slightly above the 3.6% forecast — both well above the Fed’s 2% target.
- US-Canada trade talks collapsed: The breakdown, with new tariffs now threatened, added uncertainty but wasn’t enough to derail the week’s overall gains.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
| Date | GMT Time | Country | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 31 Aug | 01:30 AM | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 49.2 | 49.9 |
| Mon, 31 Aug | 05:00 AM | JP | Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 34.9 | 35.0 |
| Mon, 31 Aug | 10:30 AM | IN | GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) | 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Mon, 31 Aug | 12:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Aug) | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Tue, 1 Sep | 01:45 AM | CN | RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 50.9 | 51.2 |
| Tue, 1 Sep | 09:00 AM | EA | Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Aug) | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Tue, 1 Sep | 02:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 55.6 | 55.0 |
| Tue, 1 Sep | 02:00 PM | US | JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) | 7.359M | 7.4M |
| Wed, 2 Sep | 01:30 AM | AU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Wed, 2 Sep | 01:45 PM | CA | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| Thu, 3 Sep | 01:30 AM | AU | Balance of Trade (Jul) | A$1.929B | A$1.1B |
| Thu, 3 Sep | 02:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI (Aug) | 54.1 | 53.8 |
| Fri, 4 Sep | 12:30 PM | CA | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Fri, 4 Sep | 12:30 PM | US | Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug) | -23K | 12.0K |
| Fri, 4 Sep | 12:30 PM | US | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| Fri, 4 Sep | 02:00 PM | CA | Ivey PMI s.a (Aug) | 55.1 | 54.7 |
Biggest Event to Watch: US Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday, 12:30 PM GMT
August’s jobs report is this week’s headline event, coming right after July’s shock -23K contraction. The TE forecast points to a modest 12.0K gain, while broader market consensus sits higher around 45K — either way, a return to positive job growth after last month’s surprise drop.
- Stronger-than-expected: Would ease slowdown fears and reinforce the Fed’s ability to stay tight on policy — likely supporting USD while adding pressure on rate-cut hopes.
- Weaker-than-expected or another contraction: Would deepen concerns about a cooling labor market and strengthen the case against further rate hikes — likely weighing on USD while supporting equities.
Also worth flagging: Wednesday’s BoC Interest Rate Decision (expected to hold at 2.25%) and a heavy PMI slate from China, the US, and the Eurozone spanning the whole week — useful early signals on global manufacturing and services momentum heading into September.
Risk note: Non-Farm Payrolls is one of the highest-impact releases on the calendar and can cause sharp, fast price swings within seconds of release. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.
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