Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Bond Yields Surge, Jackson Hole Week Ahead (25–28 Aug 2026)
Weekly Market Recap & Calendar: Bond Yields Surge, Jackson Hole Week Ahead (25–28 Aug 2026)
Stocks closed lower last week as surging bond yields, mounting US debt concerns, and rising Iran tensions overshadowed a run of surprisingly strong economic data. This week brings Core PCE inflation, a heavy US data slate, and a closely watched Fed Chair speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. All times below are in GMT.
Last Week’s Market Snapshot
| S&P 500 | -1.43% |
| Nasdaq | -2.05% |
| Dow Jones | -0.85% |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.73% (+0.89%) |
| Best Sector | Healthcare (+4.33%) |
| Worst Sector | Technology (-3.53%) |
Key Developments Last Week
- Bond yields hit multi-year highs: The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.3% and the 10-year approached 4.7%, driven by inflation worries, US national debt crossing $40 trillion, and heavy bond supply — partly tied to massive AI infrastructure financing. A Treasury announcement of expanded bond buybacks failed to calm the market for long.
- Iran tensions escalated: Talks over the Strait of Hormuz stalled, Iran continued disrupting maritime traffic, and the US threatened broad secondary sanctions on countries still trading with Tehran — pushing oil to a near one-month high and reviving inflation concerns.
- Manufacturing surprised strongly: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 47.4 in August, far above the 24.1 forecast and up from 41.4 — a sign of real strength in the industrial sector.
- Services sector accelerated too: US Services PMI rose to 56.8, well above the 53.9 forecast and up from 54.6, reinforcing the resilient-economy narrative — but also dampening hopes for near-term Fed easing.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
| Date | GMT Time | Country | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 25 Aug | 01:30 AM | AU | RBA Meeting Minutes | — | — |
| Tue, 25 Aug | 08:00 AM | DE | Ifo Business Climate (Aug) | 86.6 | 87.0 |
| Tue, 25 Aug | — | US | Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 90.8 | 90.3 |
| Wed, 26 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Wed, 26 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Wed, 26 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q2) | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Wed, 26 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Personal Income MoM (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Wed, 26 Aug | 12:30 PM | US | Personal Spending MoM (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Thu, 27 Aug | 06:00 AM | DE | GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) | -29.6 | -29.5 |
| Fri, 28 Aug | 05:00 AM | JP | Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 34.9 | 35.0 |
| Fri, 28 Aug | 06:45 AM | FR | Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Aug) | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Fri, 28 Aug | 12:30 PM | CA | GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q2) | -0.1% | 3.4% |
| Fri, 28 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | Fed Chair Warsh Speech | — | — |
| Fri, 28 Aug | 02:00 PM | US | Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel | -911K | — |
Biggest Events to Watch
Wednesday – US Core PCE (12:30 PM GMT): This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, forecast to jump to 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. A hot print would reinforce last week’s resilient-economy data and could further dampen rate-cut hopes; a cooler number would help revive them. It lands alongside a full slate of GDP, income, and spending data — a genuinely heavy US data day.
Friday – Fed Chair Warsh Speech (2:00 PM GMT): Coming during the Jackson Hole Symposium window, this speech carries outsized potential to move markets regardless of the day’s other data. Any signal on the Fed’s next move — hawkish or dovish — could trigger sharp, fast reactions across USD, gold, and equities.
- Hawkish scenario: Emphasis on persistent inflation or debt-driven yield pressures would support USD while weighing on stocks and bonds.
- Dovish scenario: Acknowledgment of labor market softness (echoing last week’s weak jobs data and this week’s -911K payrolls revision) would likely weaken USD while supporting equities.
Risk note: Fed speeches during Jackson Hole and high-impact inflation data like Core PCE can cause sharp, fast price swings within seconds. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.
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