Daily Market Update – 19 August 2026: FOMC Minutes Day

Today opens with UK inflation data before the week’s headline event — FOMC Minutes — lands late in the US session. A US mortgage rate update sits in between. All times below are in GMT.

Today’s Calendar at a Glance

🇬🇧 UK Inflation Rate (CPI) – 06:00 AM GMT

UK inflation cooled to 2.6% in June, helped by lower fuel and grocery costs. Today’s forecast points to a notable jump back up to 3.0%, which would mark a meaningful reacceleration and move further away from the Bank of England’s 2% target.

What to watch: A print near or above 3.0% would push back against BoE rate-cut expectations and could support GBP; a softer number would keep the cooling-inflation narrative alive and reinforce cut expectations, which would likely weigh on the Pound.

🇺🇸 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate – 11:00 AM GMT

Mortgage rates eased slightly to 6.77% last week, down from 6.81%, after weaker employment data reduced expectations of further Fed tightening. Rates remain elevated by recent standards but have pulled back from the highs seen earlier this month.

What to watch: Continued declines would support homebuilder and real estate stocks on improving affordability; a reversal higher would reinforce the drag on housing activity that’s persisted most of the year.

🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes – 06:00 PM GMT — Today’s Biggest Event

The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% across its last two meetings. Today’s minutes will reveal how divided the committee was and what conditions members want to see before considering any rate move — important context ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium starting August 27.

What to watch: A hawkish tone (concern about inflation, support for holding rates higher for longer) would likely support USD while pressuring stocks and bonds. A cautious or dovish tone (openness to cuts if data continues to soften) would likely weaken USD while supporting equities and bonds.

Key Takeaway for Traders

GBP is in focus early with UK CPI, but the real market-mover lands late in the day with FOMC Minutes. With Jackson Hole just over a week away, today’s minutes could set the tone for how markets position heading into that symposium.

Risk note: FOMC Minutes can trigger fast, sharp price swings, especially if the tone diverges from what markets currently expect. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.