Daily Market Update – 12 August 2026: US CPI Day
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Daily Market Update – 12 August 2026: US CPI Day
Today is all about one release: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due at 12:30 PM GMT. Four related inflation figures land at the same time — headline and core, both month-over-month and year-over-year. This is the single biggest event of the week for USD, gold, and US equities.
Today’s Calendar at a Glance
| GMT Time | Event | Previous | Consensus | TE Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 PM | Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 PM | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 12:30 PM | Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) | -0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 12:30 PM | Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
🇺🇸 What’s Expected Today
Core CPI (which strips out volatile food and energy prices) is forecast to rise 0.2% MoM after a flat 0.0% reading in June, with the annual rate ticking down to 2.5% from 2.6%. Headline CPI is expected at 0.0% MoM after a surprise -0.4% drop in June, with the yearly rate easing to 3.4% from 3.5%.
The Fed relies most heavily on Core CPI for policy decisions, since it filters out short-term noise from things like fuel and food prices. A cooling trend here has been building for a few months, and today’s data will confirm whether that trend is holding.
Market Impact: What to Watch
- Cooler-than-expected (dovish): Supports the case for Fed rate cuts — typically weakens USD, lifts gold, and boosts stocks and bonds as borrowing costs are expected to fall.
- Hotter-than-expected (hawkish): Suggests inflation is stickier than hoped — typically strengthens USD, pressures gold, and weighs on stocks and bonds as rate-cut bets get pushed back.
- In line with forecasts: Still likely to move markets, but less sharply — watch Core YoY (2.5%) as the number traders react to most.
Quick Guide: Headline vs Core, MoM vs YoY
Headline inflation covers the full basket of consumer goods, while Core inflation strips out food and energy since those swing quickly for reasons unrelated to the broader economy. Month-over-month (MoM) shows immediate, short-term price momentum; year-over-year (YoY) shows the bigger 12-month trend. Central bankers watch Core MoM for early policy signals and Core YoY for the longer-term picture — which is why Core CPI YoY tends to be the number that moves markets most on a day like today.
Risk note: CPI is one of the highest-impact releases on the calendar and can cause sharp, fast price swings within seconds of the announcement, along with wider spreads and slippage. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.
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