Daily Market Update – 11 August 2026: RBA Rate Decision & US Home Sales

Today opens with a pair of Australian releases before the US closes out the day with existing home sales. The headline event is the RBA Interest Rate Decision. All times below are in GMT.

Today’s Calendar at a Glance

🇦🇺 Australia Business Confidence – 01:30 AM GMT

NAB’s survey of Australian business managers has stayed in negative territory but is steadily improving, moving from -23 to -14 to -5 over the past few months. A score below zero still signals caution, though the trend suggests businesses are gradually feeling less pessimistic about sales, profits, and hiring plans.

What to watch: A move closer to positive territory would support AUD and Australian equities on improving sentiment; a slip back toward the recent lows would reinforce caution about the domestic growth outlook.

🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision – 04:30 AM GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its cash rate steady at 4.35% for a third straight meeting, as policymakers balance controlling inflation against maintaining growth. This is today’s biggest event for AUD pairs.

What to watch: A hold in line with expectations should keep AUD relatively stable, but the accompanying statement matters most — any hint of future cuts would weigh on the currency, while hawkish language emphasizing inflation risk would support it. The RBA Chart Pack (12 Aug) and Meeting Minutes (25 Aug) are worth watching afterward for more detail on the committee’s thinking.

🇺🇸 US Existing Home Sales – 02:00 PM GMT

Existing home sales came in at 4.09M in June, and today’s forecast points to a similar 4.06M for July. This report reflects real consumer confidence, since buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments most households make — strong sales ripple through mortgage lending, retail, and construction.

What to watch: A beat would support the US Dollar on signs of resilient consumer demand despite elevated mortgage rates; a miss would reinforce the narrative that high borrowing costs are keeping buyers on the sidelines.

Key Takeaway for Traders

AUD pairs are the early focus with the RBA decision, while USD picks up attention later with home sales data. Watch the RBA statement closely — it’s likely to matter more for AUD than the rate hold itself.

Risk note: Central bank decisions can trigger fast, sharp price swings, especially around the accompanying statement or press conference. Always use proper risk management. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice — forex and CFD trading involves significant risk of loss.